The Democrats' Election Conundrum

July 2024 (12024 Holocene)

Abstract:

Replacing President Biden as the Democrats' presidential nominee for the next four years has become necessary. Here's the best way to success.

The most serious consequence of such a result would be the shuttering of all federal efforts to combat global warming, repeating Mr. Trump's policy from 2017-2021, which put us four years behind in our effort to mitigate the problem. Trump has no understanding of that crisis, he simply denies its connection to fossil fuel use, and he plans a broad expansion of production, sale, and use of oil and gas to power his vision of an ever-growing economy. Sadly, our nation's basic educational program does not produce a citizenry capable of quickly dismissing such a charlatan as Mr. Trump, who knows how to manipulate and appeal to the basest instincts of a crowd.

Another impermissible tragedy that would result from a second Trump presidency is the end of US military assistance to Ukraine, with the result that Trump's hero and model ruler, Mr. Putin, will overcome that country's courageous defense and occupy Ukraine, quickly incorporating it into Russia, which Putin is gradually rebuilding as a reborn Soviet Union.

The Democratic Party is the only force standing in the way of this scenario, of Mr. Trump returning to the presidency and leading us further toward a tragic end. And unfortunately, Mr. Biden is currently an insufficient force to achieve that. It's easy – too easy – to simply suggest that the president bow out of the race. That would still leave the new Democratic candidate with a steep uphill climb. Let's do a quick analysis of the problem:

1. The basic issue is JB's cognitive symptoms – an evident age-related decay, perhaps recently accelerated. It has been evident and growing for a couple of years, revealing itself as a lost look in his eyes, slurred and inaudible speech, unexpected pauses, and fumbling for words and for the thread of his argument. It showed itself so clearly in the recent "debate" with Donald Trump that the whole world is talking about it. The memories and videos of that performance will not go away. Can the president's evident decay be repaired? I'm not a doctor, but I'm older than Biden, and I know it cannot be fixed – it will continue to worsen. The voters also know that there is no hope of reversing this condition, and it would be a disservice to the nation and to the Democratic party to insist on his renomination at this point. We should therefore take as given that he must not be nominated, and we must not waste time on fantasy solutions. The problem then resolves to finding the best solution without Mr. Biden.

2. The first name that comes to mind is of course Vice President Kamala Harris. She starts with two significant advantages: One is 3½ years of experience in the White House, she is known by the diplomatic corps around the world, and she has intimate acquaintance with current policies and issues. That's worth a lot. The other is about $100 M (as I understand it) of campaign contributions that would be available to her but not to any other replacement candidate. That's obviously worth a lot. Public speaking and debate were not her strong suits in the 2020 presidential primaries, but they seem to have improved over recent years with exposure and practice. Her command of facts seems strong, and I believe she will call out lies and will not be bullied in debate, neutralizing Trump's two main debating techniques. She would still start as the underdog in any debate and in the campaign, but I will suggest a fix that will bring her to at least an even starting point.

3. It seems that it's too late to seriously consider other names for the top spot on the Dem ticket. There remains the VP slot: Conventional political "wisdom" suggests that this should not be a second woman, nor another "minority," nor from the west coast. My suggestion could be Governor Roy Cooper of NC; a good choice on the merits in addition to being a good "balancing" choice. Gov. Cooper is ending his second and last term in NC this year, hamstrung throughout by an opposition majority in the NC Legislature that reduced the powers of the governor as soon as Cooper was elected.) In any case, the choice of VP eventually rests with the presidential nominee.

I'm leaving to the last my actual proposal for how we improve VP Harris' standing in the upcoming contest. Although unprecedented, this is perfectly legal and possible, and the Democratic party would be derelict in its duty to the country if it does not take advantage of this opportunity. The hard part will be to get the president's concurrence, because the idea will test his devotion to our democracy and to progress against a climate Hell. Politics, as we know, is largely theater, while political campaigns are entirely theater, and I will pose this in the form of a TV drama played out on the stage of the party convention in Chicago in August. (It assumes the cancellation of the planned "virtual" casting of ballots ahead of the broadcast convention.) Here's a scenario as it might play out:

President Biden requests the opportunity to speak live at the Democratic Party Convention in August, during the nominating session but before nominations are taken. The proceedings are broadcast live in prime time on all the TV channels. He speaks some words about the achievements of his administration and about the remaining challenges and the need to continue the work; then he "surprises" the delegates (though they've surely all read it here!) with, "I place in nomination for President of the United States of America the name of the Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris!" Bedlam breaks out, with loud and long applause – then he continues, "I further release my pledged delegates with the provision that they support the nomination of the Vice President; and I propose that we proceed immediately to that nomination by acclamation."

The Chair carries out Mr. Biden's wishes, the nomination of Harris by acclamation is completed, Harris emerges onto the stage to great acclaim, and the president retakes the lectern: "Now, that feels better. And now, to complete my mission here this evening; Kamala, will you please join me." (She does.) Biden: "You have all understood by these events that I have decided to retire from the presidency. But you may not have guessed that I am not waiting until January 20; rather, my retirement will be effective somewhat earlier." Biden gives a nod to an aide who opens a stage door, bringing onto the stage Justice Sonia Sotomayor. Biden continues: "With these words, I now retire and I am now retired from the presidency. Madam Justice, will you please administer the oath of office to the Vice President."

The hall sits in stunned silence as Justice Sotomayor reads, and Kamala Harris repeats, the oath of office of President of the United States. Biden turns to the microphone: "Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the forty-seventh President of the United States, Kamala Devi Harris." (Bedlam, greater than before.)

Whereupon, as an anti-climax, selection of the VP candidate proceeds,* as President Harris begins to plan her run as the incumbent president in the upcoming election.

Now there's a game changer!

*The 25th amendment to the Constitution specifies that "Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress." (This has happened once, when Nixon nominated Gerald Ford after Spiro Agnew quit in 1973.) So in our theater piece, President Harris is obligated to propose a VP to the Congress. She would undoubtedly nominate the person chosen by the present convention, who in turn would be the person she nominates to the convention, but it's uncertain (and irrelevant) whether both houses of Congress would approve this choice before Election Day.